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Liptovská Štiavnica vs Jednota Bánová — 3. liga - Center 2020

Liptovská Štiavnica
Liptovská Štiavnica
CANC
15:30
Jednota Bánová
Jednota Bánová
6/13/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 27Futbalový štadión TJ Družstevník Liptovská Štiavnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Liptovská Štiavnica42%
×Draw22%
Jednota Bánová35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.81
Jednota Bánová
1.63

Liptovská Štiavnica creates 11% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

creates per match

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.82
Jednota Bánová
1.40

allows per match

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.86
Jednota Bánová
1.80

finishing

Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par
Jednota Bánová+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovská Štiavnica ↓

Jednota Bánová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Liptovská Štiavnica or draw
65%
Liptovská Štiavnica or Jednota Bánová
78%
Draw or Jednota Bánová
58%

Winning margin

Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+
23%
Jednota Bánová wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals
84%
Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals
54%
Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals
27%
Jednota Bánová 1+ goals
80%
Jednota Bánová 2+ goals
48%
Jednota Bánová 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)
55%
Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovská Štiavnica at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Jednota Bánová away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 1.82 + Jednota Bánová defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.81

Jednota Bánová attack 1.40 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Liptovská Štiavnica scores more
42%
level
22%
Jednota Bánová scores more
35%

Liptovská Štiavnica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Liptovská Štiavnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liptovská Štiavnica face Jednota Bánová (3. liga - Center)

3. liga - Center returns with Liptovská Štiavnica hosting Jednota Bánová. Match starts June 13, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Liptovská Štiavnica host Jednota Bánová at Futbalový štadión TJ Družstevník Liptovská Štiavnica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.