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Jednota Bánová vs Liptovská Štiavnica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Jednota Bánová
Jednota Bánová
FT
4 – 0
Liptovská Štiavnica
Liptovská Štiavnica
6/20/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 12Futbalové ihrisko Bánová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Jednota Bánová69%
×Draw18%
Liptovská Štiavnica12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jednota Bánová
2.25
Liptovská Štiavnica
0.83

Jednota Bánová creates 171% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

creates per match

Jednota Bánová
1.64
Liptovská Štiavnica
0.74

allows per match

Jednota Bánová
0.92
Liptovská Štiavnica
2.87

finishing

Jednota Bánová+0.00on par
Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jednota Bánová ↓

Liptovská Štiavnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jednota Bánová or draw
88%
Jednota Bánová or Liptovská Štiavnica
82%
Draw or Liptovská Štiavnica
31%

Winning margin

Jednota Bánová wins by 2+
46%
Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jednota Bánová 1+ goals
89%
Jednota Bánová 2+ goals
65%
Jednota Bánová 3+ goals
39%
Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals
56%
Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals
20%
Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)
85%
Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jednota Bánová at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Liptovská Štiavnica away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jednota Bánová attack 1.64 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.25

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 0.74 + Jednota Bánová defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Jednota Bánová scores more
69%
level
18%
Liptovská Štiavnica scores more
12%

Jednota Bánová at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Jednota Bánová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jednota Bánová vs Liptovská Štiavnica

Jednota Bánová beat Liptovská Štiavnica 4-0 in 3. liga - Center on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalové ihrisko Bánová in Žilina.