Liptovská Štiavnica 1–0 Čadca: Result & Stats

Liptovská Štiavnica

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Čadca

6/11/2022

3. liga - Center · Center - 27Futbalový štadión TJ Družstevník Liptovská Štiavnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Liptovská Štiavnica63%

×Draw19%

Čadca18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liptovská ŠtiavnicaExpected goals in this matchČadca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.19

Liptovská Štiavnica

2.37

Čadca

1.19

Liptovská Štiavnica creates 99% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

1.82

creates per match

0.52

1.86

allows per match

2.91

creates per match

Liptovská Štiavnica

1.82

Čadca

0.52

allows per match

Liptovská Štiavnica

1.86

Čadca

2.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par

Čadca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovská Štiavnica ↓

Čadca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Liptovská Štiavnica or draw

82%

Liptovská Štiavnica or Čadca

81%

Draw or Čadca

37%

Winning margin

Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+

41%

Čadca wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals

91%

Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals

68%

Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals

42%

Čadca 1+ goals

70%

Čadca 2+ goals

33%

Čadca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)

78%

Čadca (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovská Štiavnica at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Čadca away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 1.82 + Čadca defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.37

Čadca attack 0.52 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Liptovská Štiavnica scores more

63%

level

19%

Čadca scores more

18%

Liptovská Štiavnica at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Liptovská Štiavnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff