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Čadca vs Liptovská Štiavnica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Čadca
Čadca
FT
0 – 0
Liptovská Štiavnica
Liptovská Štiavnica
10/16/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 12Štadión Čadca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Čadca53%
×Draw21%
Liptovská Štiavnica26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čadca
2.14
Liptovská Štiavnica
1.46

Čadca creates 47% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Čadca
1.41
Liptovská Štiavnica
0.74

allows per match

Čadca
2.18
Liptovská Štiavnica
2.87

finishing

Čadca+0.00on par
Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čadca ↓

Liptovská Štiavnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Čadca or draw
74%
Čadca or Liptovská Štiavnica
79%
Draw or Liptovská Štiavnica
47%

Winning margin

Čadca wins by 2+
32%
Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Čadca 1+ goals
88%
Čadca 2+ goals
63%
Čadca 3+ goals
36%
Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals
77%
Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals
43%
Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Čadca (draw refunded)
67%
Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čadca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.18 · 22 matches

Liptovská Štiavnica away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čadca attack 1.41 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.14

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 0.74 + Čadca defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Čadca scores more
53%
level
21%
Liptovská Štiavnica scores more
26%

Čadca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Čadca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Čadca vs Liptovská Štiavnica

Čadca and Liptovská Štiavnica drew 0-0 in 3. liga - Center on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Čadca in Čadca.