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Lippstadt 08 vs Concordia Wiemelhausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Lippstadt 08
Lippstadt 08
FT
6 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
M. Romano 75', 7'
L. Neugebauer 72'
K. Sadeghi 62'
G. Kaiser 46'
M. Franke 19'
A. Uzunbas 45' (pen)
P. Sacher 1'
9/1/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 4Liebelt-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Lippstadt 0869%
×Draw17%
Concordia Wiemelhausen15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lippstadt 08
2.69
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.19

Lippstadt 08 creates 126% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 18 away

creates per match

Lippstadt 08
1.94
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.28

allows per match

Lippstadt 08
1.09
Concordia Wiemelhausen
3.44

finishing

Lippstadt 08+0.00on par
Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lippstadt 08 ↓

Concordia Wiemelhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Lippstadt 08 or draw
85%
Lippstadt 08 or Concordia Wiemelhausen
83%
Draw or Concordia Wiemelhausen
31%

Winning margin

Lippstadt 08 wins by 2+
47%
Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lippstadt 08 1+ goals
93%
Lippstadt 08 2+ goals
74%
Lippstadt 08 3+ goals
49%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
70%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
33%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lippstadt 08 (draw refunded)
82%
Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lippstadt 08 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lippstadt 08 attack 1.94 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.69

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + Lippstadt 08 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Lippstadt 08 scores more
69%
level
17%
Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
15%

Lippstadt 08 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Lippstadt 08 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
P. Sacher
7'
M. Romano
19'
M. Franke
45'
A. UzunbasPenalty
46'
G. Kaiser
62'
K. Sadeghi
72'
L. Neugebauer
75'
M. Romano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lippstadt 08 vs Concordia Wiemelhausen

Lippstadt 08 beat Concordia Wiemelhausen 6-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 1, 2024.

Goals: P. Sacher (1'), M. Romano (7', 75'), M. Franke (19'), A. Uzunbas (45' pen), G. Kaiser (46'), K. Sadeghi (62'), L. Neugebauer (72').

The match was played at Liebelt-Arena in Lippstadt.