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Concordia Wiemelhausen vs Lippstadt 08 — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Lippstadt 08
Lippstadt 08
B. Yerli 40'
L. Neugebauer 87', 10'
G. Kaiser 84'
D. Doren 73'
M. Romano 64'
2/16/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 23Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen32%
×Draw22%
Lippstadt 0846%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.63
Lippstadt 08
1.98

Lippstadt 08 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 37 away

creates per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.05
Lippstadt 08
1.49

allows per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.47
Lippstadt 08
1.22

finishing

Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par
Lippstadt 08+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Wiemelhausen ↓

Lippstadt 08 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Concordia Wiemelhausen or draw
54%
Concordia Wiemelhausen or Lippstadt 08
78%
Draw or Lippstadt 08
68%

Winning margin

Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
16%
Lippstadt 08 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
80%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
48%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
22%
Lippstadt 08 1+ goals
86%
Lippstadt 08 2+ goals
59%
Lippstadt 08 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
41%
Lippstadt 08 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Wiemelhausen at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

Lippstadt 08 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 2.05 + Lippstadt 08 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lippstadt 08 attack 1.49 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
32%
level
22%
Lippstadt 08 scores more
46%

Lippstadt 08 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lippstadt 08 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
L. Neugebauer
40'
B. Yerli
64'
M. Romano
73'
D. Doren
84'
G. Kaiser
87'
L. Neugebauer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concordia Wiemelhausen vs Lippstadt 08

Lippstadt 08 beat Concordia Wiemelhausen 5-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 16, 2025.

Goals: L. Neugebauer (10', 87'), B. Yerli (40'), M. Romano (64'), D. Doren (73'), G. Kaiser (84').

The match was played at Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen in Bochum.