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Lippstadt 08 vs Bövinghausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Lippstadt 08
Lippstadt 08
CANC
13:00
Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
4/27/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 33Liebelt-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lippstadt 0860%
×Draw20%
Bövinghausen20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lippstadt 08
2.22
Bövinghausen
1.20

Lippstadt 08 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 47 away

creates per match

Lippstadt 08
1.94
Bövinghausen
1.30

allows per match

Lippstadt 08
1.09
Bövinghausen
2.51

finishing

Lippstadt 08+0.00on par
Bövinghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lippstadt 08 ↓

Bövinghausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Lippstadt 08 or draw
80%
Lippstadt 08 or Bövinghausen
80%
Draw or Bövinghausen
40%

Winning margin

Lippstadt 08 wins by 2+
38%
Bövinghausen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lippstadt 08 1+ goals
89%
Lippstadt 08 2+ goals
65%
Lippstadt 08 3+ goals
38%
Bövinghausen 1+ goals
70%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
34%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lippstadt 08 (draw refunded)
75%
Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lippstadt 08 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Bövinghausen away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.51 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lippstadt 08 attack 1.94 + Bövinghausen defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.22

Bövinghausen attack 1.30 + Lippstadt 08 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lippstadt 08 scores more
60%
level
20%
Bövinghausen scores more
20%

Lippstadt 08 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lippstadt 08 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lippstadt 08 face Bövinghausen (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with Lippstadt 08 hosting Bövinghausen. Match starts April 27, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lippstadt 08 host Bövinghausen at Liebelt-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.