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Bövinghausen vs Lippstadt 08 — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Bövinghausen
Bövinghausen
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Lippstadt 08
Lippstadt 08
11/10/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 14Sportplatz Bövinghausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bövinghausen25%
×Draw21%
Lippstadt 0854%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bövinghausen
1.44
Lippstadt 08
2.16

Lippstadt 08 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 37 away

creates per match

Bövinghausen
1.66
Lippstadt 08
1.49

allows per match

Bövinghausen
2.83
Lippstadt 08
1.22

finishing

Bövinghausen+0.00on par
Lippstadt 08+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bövinghausen ↓

Lippstadt 08 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bövinghausen or draw
46%
Bövinghausen or Lippstadt 08
79%
Draw or Lippstadt 08
75%

Winning margin

Bövinghausen wins by 2+
11%
Lippstadt 08 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Bövinghausen 1+ goals
76%
Bövinghausen 2+ goals
42%
Bövinghausen 3+ goals
18%
Lippstadt 08 1+ goals
88%
Lippstadt 08 2+ goals
63%
Lippstadt 08 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Bövinghausen (draw refunded)
32%
Lippstadt 08 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bövinghausen at home — creates 1.66, concedes 2.83 · 47 matches

Lippstadt 08 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bövinghausen attack 1.66 + Lippstadt 08 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lippstadt 08 attack 1.49 + Bövinghausen defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bövinghausen scores more
25%
level
21%
Lippstadt 08 scores more
54%

Lippstadt 08 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lippstadt 08 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Bövinghausen 2–4 Lippstadt 08

Lippstadt 08 beat Bövinghausen 4-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bövinghausen in Dortmund.