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Lipany vs Tatran Prešov — 3. liga - East 2020

Lipany
Lipany
CANC
15:00
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
5/30/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Lipany42%
×Draw21%
Tatran Prešov37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lipany
1.96
Tatran Prešov
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 23 away

creates per match

Lipany
2.76
Tatran Prešov
2.78

allows per match

Lipany
0.87
Tatran Prešov
1.17

finishing

Lipany+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lipany ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Lipany or draw
63%
Lipany or Tatran Prešov
79%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
58%

Winning margin

Lipany wins by 2+
23%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lipany 1+ goals
86%
Lipany 2+ goals
58%
Lipany 3+ goals
31%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
84%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
54%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Lipany (draw refunded)
53%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lipany at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lipany attack 2.76 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.96

Tatran Prešov attack 2.78 + Lipany defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lipany scores more
42%
level
21%
Tatran Prešov scores more
37%

Lipany at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lipany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lipany vs Tatran Prešov — Match Preview

Lipany face Tatran Prešov on May 30, 2021 in this 3. liga - East fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.