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Lipany vs Družstevník Plavnica — 3. liga - East 2020

Lipany
Lipany
FT
1 – 1
Družstevník Plavnica
Družstevník Plavnica
8/29/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 6Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lipany70%
×Draw17%
Družstevník Plavnica13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lipany
2.54
Družstevník Plavnica
1.02

Lipany creates 149% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lipany
2.76
Družstevník Plavnica
1.17

allows per match

Lipany
0.87
Družstevník Plavnica
2.33

finishing

Lipany+0.00on par
Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lipany ↓

Družstevník Plavnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Lipany or draw
87%
Lipany or Družstevník Plavnica
83%
Draw or Družstevník Plavnica
30%

Winning margin

Lipany wins by 2+
48%
Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lipany 1+ goals
92%
Lipany 2+ goals
72%
Lipany 3+ goals
46%
Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals
64%
Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals
27%
Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lipany (draw refunded)
84%
Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lipany at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Družstevník Plavnica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lipany attack 2.76 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.54

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.17 + Lipany defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Lipany scores more
70%
level
17%
Družstevník Plavnica scores more
13%

Lipany at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Lipany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lipany vs Družstevník Plavnica

Lipany and Družstevník Plavnica drew 1-1 in 3. liga - East on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lipany.