Družstevník Plavnica vs Lipany

Družstevník Plavnica

CANC

14:00

Lipany

4/18/2021

3. liga - East · East - 21Futbalový štadión FK Družstevník Plavnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Družstevník Plavnica46%

×Draw24%

Lipany30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Družstevník PlavnicaExpected goals in this matchLipany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.29

Družstevník Plavnica

1.67

Lipany

1.29

Družstevník Plavnica creates 29% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 80 away

1.88

creates per match

1.57

1.00

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Družstevník Plavnica

1.88

Lipany

1.57

allows per match

Družstevník Plavnica

1.00

Lipany

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par

Lipany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Družstevník Plavnica ↓

Lipany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Družstevník Plavnica or draw

70%

Družstevník Plavnica or Lipany

76%

Draw or Lipany

54%

Winning margin

Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+

24%

Lipany wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals

81%

Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals

50%

Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals

23%

Lipany 1+ goals

72%

Lipany 2+ goals

37%

Lipany 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)

61%

Lipany (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Družstevník Plavnica at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Lipany away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.45 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.88 + Lipany defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.67

Lipany attack 1.57 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Družstevník Plavnica scores more

46%

level

24%

Lipany scores more

30%

Družstevník Plavnica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Družstevník Plavnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff