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Lions vs Brisbane Roar II — Queensland NPL 2026

Lions
Lions
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Brisbane Roar II
Brisbane Roar II
3/17/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 4Lions FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Lions55%
×Draw20%
Brisbane Roar II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lions
2.32
Brisbane Roar II
1.53

Lions creates 52% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 91 away

creates per match

Lions
2.85
Brisbane Roar II
1.92

allows per match

Lions
1.15
Brisbane Roar II
1.79

finishing

Lions+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lions ↓

Brisbane Roar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Lions or draw
75%
Lions or Brisbane Roar II
80%
Draw or Brisbane Roar II
45%

Winning margin

Lions wins by 2+
34%
Brisbane Roar II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lions 1+ goals
90%
Lions 2+ goals
67%
Lions 3+ goals
40%
Brisbane Roar II 1+ goals
78%
Brisbane Roar II 2+ goals
45%
Brisbane Roar II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lions (draw refunded)
69%
Brisbane Roar II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lions at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.15 · 96 matches

Brisbane Roar II away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.79 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lions attack 2.85 + Brisbane Roar II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.32

Brisbane Roar II attack 1.92 + Lions defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lions scores more
55%
level
20%
Brisbane Roar II scores more
25%

Lions at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Lions 1–2 Brisbane Roar II

Brisbane Roar II beat Lions 2-1 in Queensland NPL on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Lions FC Stadium in Brisbane.