Brisbane Roar II 0–5 Lions: Result & Stats

Brisbane Roar II

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Lions

6/16/2024

Queensland NPL · Round 15Nudgee Recreation Reserve Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Brisbane Roar II25%

×Draw20%

Lions55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brisbane Roar IIExpected goals in this matchLions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.21

Brisbane Roar II

1.44

Lions

2.21

Lions creates 53% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 100 away

1.67

creates per match

2.46

1.96

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Brisbane Roar II

1.67

Lions

2.46

allows per match

Brisbane Roar II

1.96

Lions

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brisbane Roar II+0.00on par

Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar II ↓

Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar II or draw

45%

Brisbane Roar II or Lions

80%

Draw or Lions

75%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar II wins by 2+

11%

Lions wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar II 1+ goals

76%

Brisbane Roar II 2+ goals

42%

Brisbane Roar II 3+ goals

18%

Lions 1+ goals

89%

Lions 2+ goals

65%

Lions 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar II (draw refunded)

31%

Lions (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.96 · 94 matches

Lions away — creates 2.46, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar II attack 1.67 + Lions defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lions attack 2.46 + Brisbane Roar II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Brisbane Roar II scores more

25%

level

20%

Lions scores more

55%

Lions at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff