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Lion Blessé vs Foncha ST — Elite Two 2020

Lion Blessé
Lion Blessé
FT
3 – 2
Foncha ST
Foncha ST
9/20/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Relegation Play-offs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lion Blessé61%
×Draw20%
Foncha ST20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lion Blessé
2.28
Foncha ST
1.23

Lion Blessé creates 85% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 50 away

creates per match

Lion Blessé
2.43
Foncha ST
1.04

allows per match

Lion Blessé
1.43
Foncha ST
2.12

finishing

Lion Blessé+0.00on par
Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lion Blessé ↓

Foncha ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Lion Blessé or draw
80%
Lion Blessé or Foncha ST
80%
Draw or Foncha ST
39%

Winning margin

Lion Blessé wins by 2+
38%
Foncha ST wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lion Blessé 1+ goals
90%
Lion Blessé 2+ goals
66%
Lion Blessé 3+ goals
39%
Foncha ST 1+ goals
71%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
35%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lion Blessé (draw refunded)
75%
Foncha ST (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lion Blessé at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lion Blessé attack 2.43 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.28

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + Lion Blessé defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lion Blessé scores more
61%
level
20%
Foncha ST scores more
20%

Lion Blessé at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lion Blessé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lion Blessé vs Foncha ST

Lion Blessé beat Foncha ST 3-2 in Elite Two on September 20, 2021.