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Foncha ST vs Lion Blessé — Elite Two 2020

Foncha ST
Foncha ST
CANC
00:00
Lion Blessé
Lion Blessé
4/19/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Foncha ST46%
×Draw28%
Lion Blessé27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foncha ST
1.34
Lion Blessé
0.95

Foncha ST creates 41% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 6 away

creates per match

Foncha ST
1.35
Lion Blessé
0.83

allows per match

Foncha ST
1.06
Lion Blessé
1.33

finishing

Foncha ST+0.00on par
Lion Blessé+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foncha ST ↓

Lion Blessé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Foncha ST or draw
73%
Foncha ST or Lion Blessé
72%
Draw or Lion Blessé
54%

Winning margin

Foncha ST wins by 2+
21%
Lion Blessé wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Foncha ST 1+ goals
74%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
39%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
15%
Lion Blessé 1+ goals
61%
Lion Blessé 2+ goals
25%
Lion Blessé 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Foncha ST (draw refunded)
63%
Lion Blessé (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foncha ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

Lion Blessé away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foncha ST attack 1.35 + Lion Blessé defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Lion Blessé attack 0.83 + Foncha ST defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Foncha ST scores more
46%
level
28%
Lion Blessé scores more
27%

Foncha ST at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Foncha ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Foncha ST host Lion Blessé

April 19, 2022: Foncha ST take on Lion Blessé in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.