Linlithgow Rose 4–0 Caledonian Braves

Linlithgow Rose

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Caledonian Braves

1/24/2026

League #731 · Lowland League - 31Prestonfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Linlithgow Rose47%

×Draw23%

Caledonian Braves30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linlithgow RoseExpected goals in this matchCaledonian Braves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.43

Linlithgow Rose

1.85

Caledonian Braves

1.43

Linlithgow Rose creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

2.45

creates per match

1.50

1.36

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Linlithgow Rose

2.45

Caledonian Braves

1.50

allows per match

Linlithgow Rose

1.36

Caledonian Braves

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linlithgow Rose+0.00on par

Caledonian Braves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linlithgow Rose ↓

Caledonian Braves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Linlithgow Rose or draw

70%

Linlithgow Rose or Caledonian Braves

77%

Draw or Caledonian Braves

53%

Winning margin

Linlithgow Rose wins by 2+

26%

Caledonian Braves wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Linlithgow Rose 1+ goals

84%

Linlithgow Rose 2+ goals

55%

Linlithgow Rose 3+ goals

28%

Caledonian Braves 1+ goals

76%

Caledonian Braves 2+ goals

42%

Caledonian Braves 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Linlithgow Rose (draw refunded)

61%

Caledonian Braves (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linlithgow Rose at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Caledonian Braves away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linlithgow Rose attack 2.45 + Caledonian Braves defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.85

Caledonian Braves attack 1.50 + Linlithgow Rose defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Linlithgow Rose scores more

47%

level

23%

Caledonian Braves scores more

30%

Linlithgow Rose at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Linlithgow Rose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff