Caledonian Braves 0–1 Linlithgow Rose

Caledonian Braves

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Linlithgow Rose

3/7/2026

League #731 · Lowland League - 35Alliance Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Caledonian Braves36%

×Draw25%

Linlithgow Rose38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Caledonian BravesExpected goals in this matchLinlithgow Rose

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.42

Caledonian Braves

1.38

Linlithgow Rose

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.67

creates per match

1.83

1.00

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Caledonian Braves

1.67

Linlithgow Rose

1.83

allows per match

Caledonian Braves

1.00

Linlithgow Rose

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caledonian Braves+0.00on par

Linlithgow Rose+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caledonian Braves ↓

Linlithgow Rose →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Caledonian Braves or draw

62%

Caledonian Braves or Linlithgow Rose

75%

Draw or Linlithgow Rose

64%

Winning margin

Caledonian Braves wins by 2+

17%

Linlithgow Rose wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Caledonian Braves 1+ goals

75%

Caledonian Braves 2+ goals

40%

Caledonian Braves 3+ goals

16%

Linlithgow Rose 1+ goals

76%

Linlithgow Rose 2+ goals

41%

Linlithgow Rose 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Caledonian Braves (draw refunded)

49%

Linlithgow Rose (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caledonian Braves at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Linlithgow Rose away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caledonian Braves attack 1.67 + Linlithgow Rose defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Linlithgow Rose attack 1.83 + Caledonian Braves defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Caledonian Braves scores more

36%

level

25%

Linlithgow Rose scores more

38%

Linlithgow Rose at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Linlithgow Rose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff