Linköping W 0–3 Göteborg W: Result & Stats

Linköping W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Göteborg W

E. Ijeh 90+2'

D. Zomers 71'

M. Mijatović 67'

7/7/2021

Damallsvenskan · Round 12Arena Linköping

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Linköping W29%

×Draw23%

Göteborg W48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linköping WExpected goals in this matchGöteborg W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.78

Linköping W

1.34

Göteborg W

1.78

Göteborg W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 22 away

2.01

creates per match

2.05

1.51

allows per match

0.68

creates per match

Linköping W

2.01

Göteborg W

2.05

allows per match

Linköping W

1.51

Göteborg W

0.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linköping W+0.00on par

Göteborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linköping W ↓

Göteborg W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Linköping W or draw

52%

Linköping W or Göteborg W

77%

Draw or Göteborg W

71%

Winning margin

Linköping W wins by 2+

13%

Göteborg W wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Linköping W 1+ goals

74%

Linköping W 2+ goals

39%

Linköping W 3+ goals

15%

Göteborg W 1+ goals

83%

Göteborg W 2+ goals

53%

Göteborg W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Linköping W (draw refunded)

38%

Göteborg W (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linköping W at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

Göteborg W away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linköping W attack 2.01 + Göteborg W defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.34

Göteborg W attack 2.05 + Linköping W defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Linköping W scores more

29%

level

23%

Göteborg W scores more

48%

Göteborg W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Göteborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

P. Johansson

61'

T. Simonsson← S. Bredgaard

67'

M. Mijatović

71'

D. Zomers

74'

F. Curmark

76'

E. Ijeh← A. Csiki

77'

E. Landström← A. Selerud

78'

L. N. Gevitz

86'

D. Holmes← M. Mijatović

90+2'

E. Ijeh

Linköping

Göteborg

13

4

8

5

23

⚽

▼

10

9

16

17

▼

Csiki

21

⚽

7

13

5

10

19

11

16

12

30

▼

Bredgaard

27

Kanu

23

Kapocs

21

▼

Selerud

Manager: A. Jeglertz

61'▲T. Simonsson←▼S. Bredgaard

77'▲E. Landström←▼A. Selerud

Linköping W substitutes

9Simonsson6Landström1Andersson2Bülow3Alm14Levenstad

Manager: M. Gren

76'▲E. Ijeh←▼A. Csiki

86'▲D. Holmes←▼M. Mijatović

Göteborg W substitutes

22Ijeh6Holmes1Geurts14Johansson18Svedberg24Nygren

Damallsvenskan: Linköping W 0–3 Göteborg W

Göteborg W beat Linköping W 3-0 in Damallsvenskan on July 7, 2021.

Goals: M. Mijatović (67'), D. Zomers (71'), E. Ijeh (90+2').

The match was played at Arena Linköping in Linköping.

Linköping W vs Göteborg W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Damallsvenskan: Linköping W 0–3 Göteborg W