Göteborg W 2–0 Linköping W: Result & Stats

Göteborg W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Linköping W

P. Hammarlund 45+7'

S. Blackstenius 45+1'

8/3/2020

Damallsvenskan · Round 8Valhalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Göteborg W66%

×Draw19%

Linköping W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Göteborg WExpected goals in this matchLinköping W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.94

Göteborg W

2.23

Linköping W

0.94

Göteborg W creates 137% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 74 away

2.86

creates per match

1.51

0.36

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Göteborg W

2.86

Linköping W

1.51

allows per match

Göteborg W

0.36

Linköping W

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Göteborg W+0.00on par

Linköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göteborg W ↓

Linköping W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Göteborg W or draw

85%

Göteborg W or Linköping W

81%

Draw or Linköping W

34%

Winning margin

Göteborg W wins by 2+

43%

Linköping W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Göteborg W 1+ goals

89%

Göteborg W 2+ goals

65%

Göteborg W 3+ goals

38%

Linköping W 1+ goals

61%

Linköping W 2+ goals

24%

Linköping W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Göteborg W (draw refunded)

82%

Linköping W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göteborg W at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.36 · 22 matches

Linköping W away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göteborg W attack 2.86 + Linköping W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.23

Linköping W attack 1.51 + Göteborg W defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Göteborg W scores more

66%

level

19%

Linköping W scores more

15%

Göteborg W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Göteborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

H. Wijk← E. Berglund

41'

S. Bredgaard← O. Ahtinen

45+3'

F. Angeldal

45+3'

P. Johansson

45+1'

S. Blackstenius

45+7'

P. Hammarlund

46'

R. Blomqvist← J. Olme

67'

U. Kanu

73'

A. Csiki← J. Roddar

81'

J. Alm← R. Aronsson

86'

H. Andersson← F. Angeldahl

86'

R. Karlsson Törnborg← E. Orji

Göteborg

Linköping

2

5

6

10

19

▼

Aronsson

4

Hurtig

22

▼

Ahtinen

12

Johansson

17

▼

9

27

13

19

▼

4

5

14

6

▼

Roddar

9

Curmark

16

▼

Angeldahl

15

▼

Olme

11

⚽

Hammarlun

7

⚽

Blacksten

Manager: M. Gren

36'▲H. Wijk←▼E. Berglund

46'▲R. Blomqvist←▼J. Olme

73'▲A. Csiki←▼J. Roddar

86'▲H. Andersson←▼F. Angeldahl

Göteborg W substitutes

20Wijk21Blomqvist17Csiki18Andersson22Ijeh23Folds30Hall

Manager: O. Unogård

41'▲S. Bredgaard←▼O. Ahtinen

81'▲J. Alm←▼R. Aronsson

86'▲R. Karlsson Törnborg←▼E. Orji

Linköping W substitutes

30Bredgaard3Alm18Törnborg1Andersson15Maanum21Selerud