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Liniers vs JJ Urquiza — Primera C 2026

Liniers
Liniers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
JJ Urquiza
JJ Urquiza
11/12/2023Primera CPrimera C · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsEstadio Juan Antonio Arias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Liniers40%
×Draw28%
JJ Urquiza32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liniers
1.25
JJ Urquiza
1.08

Liniers creates 16% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 68 away

creates per match

Liniers
1.44
JJ Urquiza
1.01

allows per match

Liniers
1.15
JJ Urquiza
1.06

finishing

Liniers+0.00on par
JJ Urquiza+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liniers ↓

JJ Urquiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Liniers or draw
68%
Liniers or JJ Urquiza
72%
Draw or JJ Urquiza
60%

Winning margin

Liniers wins by 2+
18%
JJ Urquiza wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Liniers 1+ goals
71%
Liniers 2+ goals
36%
Liniers 3+ goals
13%
JJ Urquiza 1+ goals
66%
JJ Urquiza 2+ goals
29%
JJ Urquiza 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Liniers (draw refunded)
56%
JJ Urquiza (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liniers at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.15 · 39 matches

JJ Urquiza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liniers attack 1.44 + JJ Urquiza defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

JJ Urquiza attack 1.01 + Liniers defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Liniers scores more
40%
level
28%
JJ Urquiza scores more
32%

Liniers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Liniers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Liniers 1–1 JJ Urquiza

Liniers and JJ Urquiza drew 1-1 in Primera C on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Antonio Arias in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.