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JJ Urquiza vs Liniers — Primera C 2026

JJ Urquiza
JJ Urquiza
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Liniers
Liniers
2/18/2023Primera CPrimera C · Round 4Estadio Ramón Roque Martín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

JJ Urquiza40%
×Draw32%
Liniers27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JJ Urquiza
1.03
Liniers
0.79

JJ Urquiza creates 30% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 39 away

creates per match

JJ Urquiza
1.09
Liniers
0.90

allows per match

JJ Urquiza
0.69
Liniers
0.97

finishing

JJ Urquiza+0.00on par
Liniers+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JJ Urquiza ↓

Liniers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

JJ Urquiza or draw
73%
JJ Urquiza or Liniers
68%
Draw or Liniers
60%

Winning margin

JJ Urquiza wins by 2+
16%
Liniers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

JJ Urquiza 1+ goals
64%
JJ Urquiza 2+ goals
28%
JJ Urquiza 3+ goals
9%
Liniers 1+ goals
55%
Liniers 2+ goals
19%
Liniers 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JJ Urquiza (draw refunded)
60%
Liniers (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JJ Urquiza at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.69 · 65 matches

Liniers away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JJ Urquiza attack 1.09 + Liniers defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.03

Liniers attack 0.90 + JJ Urquiza defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

JJ Urquiza scores more
40%
level
32%
Liniers scores more
27%

JJ Urquiza at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "JJ Urquiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: JJ Urquiza 0–1 Liniers

Liniers beat JJ Urquiza 1-0 in Primera C on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Roque Martín in Loma Hermosa, Provincia de Buenos Aires.