Liniers Bahía Blanca 0–0 Juventud Unida Univ.

Liniers Bahía Blanca

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Juventud Unida Univ.

8/20/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 25Estadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca37%

×Draw31%

Juventud Unida Univ.32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liniers Bahía BlancaExpected goals in this matchJuventud Unida Univ.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.94

Liniers Bahía Blanca

1.04

Juventud Unida Univ.

0.94

Liniers Bahía Blanca creates 11% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 111 away

1.03

creates per match

0.79

1.09

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca

1.03

Juventud Unida Univ.

0.79

allows per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca

1.09

Juventud Unida Univ.

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par

Juventud Unida Univ.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liniers Bahía Blanca ↓

Juventud Unida Univ. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Liniers Bahía Blanca or draw

68%

Liniers Bahía Blanca or Juventud Unida Univ.

69%

Draw or Juventud Unida Univ.

63%

Winning margin

Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+

15%

Juventud Unida Univ. wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals

65%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals

28%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals

9%

Juventud Unida Univ. 1+ goals

61%

Juventud Unida Univ. 2+ goals

24%

Juventud Unida Univ. 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)

54%

Juventud Unida Univ. (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liniers Bahía Blanca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Juventud Unida Univ. away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 1.03 + Juventud Unida Univ. defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Juventud Unida Univ. attack 0.79 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more

37%

level

31%

Juventud Unida Univ. scores more

32%

Liniers Bahía Blanca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Liniers Bahía Blanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff