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Juventud Unida Univ. vs Liniers Bahía Blanca — Torneo Federal A 2018

Juventud Unida Univ.
Juventud Unida Univ.
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Liniers Bahía Blanca
Liniers Bahía Blanca
5/11/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 8Estadio Mario Sebastián Diez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Juventud Unida Univ.54%
×Draw29%
Liniers Bahía Blanca17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Unida Univ.
1.31
Liniers Bahía Blanca
0.60

Juventud Unida Univ. creates 118% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 33 away

creates per match

Juventud Unida Univ.
1.02
Liniers Bahía Blanca
0.58

allows per match

Juventud Unida Univ.
0.62
Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.61

finishing

Juventud Unida Univ.+0.00on par
Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Unida Univ. ↓

Liniers Bahía Blanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Juventud Unida Univ. or draw
83%
Juventud Unida Univ. or Liniers Bahía Blanca
71%
Draw or Liniers Bahía Blanca
46%

Winning margin

Juventud Unida Univ. wins by 2+
26%
Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Juventud Unida Univ. 1+ goals
73%
Juventud Unida Univ. 2+ goals
38%
Juventud Unida Univ. 3+ goals
14%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals
45%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals
12%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Juventud Unida Univ. (draw refunded)
76%
Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Unida Univ. at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Unida Univ. attack 1.02 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 0.58 + Juventud Unida Univ. defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Juventud Unida Univ. scores more
54%
level
29%
Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more
17%

Juventud Unida Univ. at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Juventud Unida Univ. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Juventud Unida Univ. 0–0 Liniers Bahía Blanca

Juventud Unida Univ. and Liniers Bahía Blanca drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on May 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Mario Sebastián Diez in San Luis, Provincia de San Luis.