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Liniers Bahía Blanca vs Huracan Las Heras — Torneo Federal A 2018

Liniers Bahía Blanca
Liniers Bahía Blanca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Huracan Las Heras
Huracan Las Heras
5/29/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 11Estadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca43%
×Draw30%
Huracan Las Heras27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.18
Huracan Las Heras
0.88

Liniers Bahía Blanca creates 34% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

creates per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.03
Huracan Las Heras
0.67

allows per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.09
Huracan Las Heras
1.32

finishing

Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par
Huracan Las Heras+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liniers Bahía Blanca ↓

Huracan Las Heras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Liniers Bahía Blanca or draw
73%
Liniers Bahía Blanca or Huracan Las Heras
70%
Draw or Huracan Las Heras
57%

Winning margin

Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+
18%
Huracan Las Heras wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals
69%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals
33%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals
12%
Huracan Las Heras 1+ goals
59%
Huracan Las Heras 2+ goals
22%
Huracan Las Heras 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)
61%
Huracan Las Heras (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liniers Bahía Blanca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Huracan Las Heras away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.32 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 1.03 + Huracan Las Heras defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Huracan Las Heras attack 0.67 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more
43%
level
30%
Huracan Las Heras scores more
27%

Liniers Bahía Blanca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Liniers Bahía Blanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Liniers Bahía Blanca 1–1 Huracan Las Heras

Liniers Bahía Blanca and Huracan Las Heras drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez in Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires.