Huracan Las Heras 3–1 Liniers Bahía Blanca

Huracan Las Heras

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Liniers Bahía Blanca

9/4/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 28Estadio General San Martín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Huracan Las Heras53%

×Draw28%

Liniers Bahía Blanca18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huracan Las HerasExpected goals in this matchLiniers Bahía Blanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.66

Huracan Las Heras

1.35

Liniers Bahía Blanca

0.66

Huracan Las Heras creates 105% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 33 away

1.10

creates per match

0.58

0.73

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Huracan Las Heras

1.10

Liniers Bahía Blanca

0.58

allows per match

Huracan Las Heras

0.73

Liniers Bahía Blanca

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huracan Las Heras+0.00on par

Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan Las Heras ↓

Liniers Bahía Blanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Huracan Las Heras or draw

82%

Huracan Las Heras or Liniers Bahía Blanca

72%

Draw or Liniers Bahía Blanca

47%

Winning margin

Huracan Las Heras wins by 2+

26%

Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Huracan Las Heras 1+ goals

74%

Huracan Las Heras 2+ goals

39%

Huracan Las Heras 3+ goals

15%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals

48%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals

14%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Huracan Las Heras (draw refunded)

75%

Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan Las Heras at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.73 · 108 matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan Las Heras attack 1.10 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 0.58 + Huracan Las Heras defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Huracan Las Heras scores more

53%

level

28%

Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more

18%

Huracan Las Heras at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Huracan Las Heras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff