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Linfield W vs Wexford Youths W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Linfield W
Linfield W
FT
2 – 3
Wexford Youths W
Wexford Youths Wadvanced
6/22/2024All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Quarter-finalsMidgley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Linfield W34%
×Draw22%
Wexford Youths W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield W
1.63
Wexford Youths W
1.88

Wexford Youths W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Linfield W
2.25
Wexford Youths W
2.50

allows per match

Linfield W
1.25
Wexford Youths W
1.00

finishing

Linfield W+0.00on par
Wexford Youths W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield W ↓

Wexford Youths W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Linfield W or draw
56%
Linfield W or Wexford Youths W
78%
Draw or Wexford Youths W
66%

Winning margin

Linfield W wins by 2+
16%
Wexford Youths W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Linfield W 1+ goals
80%
Linfield W 2+ goals
48%
Linfield W 3+ goals
22%
Wexford Youths W 1+ goals
85%
Wexford Youths W 2+ goals
56%
Wexford Youths W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Linfield W (draw refunded)
44%
Wexford Youths W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Wexford Youths W away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield W attack 2.25 + Wexford Youths W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Wexford Youths W attack 2.50 + Linfield W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Linfield W scores more
34%
level
22%
Wexford Youths W scores more
44%

Wexford Youths W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wexford Youths W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linfield W vs Wexford Youths W

Wexford Youths W beat Linfield W 3-2 in All-Island Cup - Women on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at Midgley Park in Belfast.