Linfield 1–0 Kilmarnock: Result & Stats

Linfield

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kilmarnock

C. McKee 12'

7/8/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Linfield14%

×Draw21%

Kilmarnock65%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LinfieldExpected goals in this matchKilmarnock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.95

Linfield

0.78

Kilmarnock

1.95

Kilmarnock creates 150% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.75

creates per match

2.40

1.50

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Linfield

0.75

Kilmarnock

2.40

allows per match

Linfield

1.50

Kilmarnock

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linfield+0.00on par

Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield ↓

Kilmarnock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Linfield or draw

35%

Linfield or Kilmarnock

79%

Draw or Kilmarnock

86%

Winning margin

Linfield wins by 2+

4%

Kilmarnock wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Linfield 1+ goals

54%

Linfield 2+ goals

18%

Linfield 3+ goals

4%

Kilmarnock 1+ goals

86%

Kilmarnock 2+ goals

58%

Kilmarnock 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Linfield (draw refunded)

18%

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Kilmarnock away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield attack 0.75 + Kilmarnock defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Kilmarnock attack 2.40 + Linfield defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Linfield scores more

14%

level

21%

Kilmarnock scores more

65%

Kilmarnock at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

C. McKee

Statistics

LinfieldKilmarnock

Overview

10Corners2