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Linfield vs Kilmarnock — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Linfield
Linfield
FT
0 – 1
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
6/30/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Queen's University Malone Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Linfield14%
×Draw21%
Kilmarnock65%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield
0.78
Kilmarnock
1.95

Kilmarnock creates 150% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Linfield
0.75
Kilmarnock
2.40

allows per match

Linfield
1.50
Kilmarnock
0.80

finishing

Linfield+0.00on par
Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield ↓

Kilmarnock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Linfield or draw
35%
Linfield or Kilmarnock
79%
Draw or Kilmarnock
86%

Winning margin

Linfield wins by 2+
4%
Kilmarnock wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Linfield 1+ goals
54%
Linfield 2+ goals
18%
Linfield 3+ goals
4%
Kilmarnock 1+ goals
86%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
58%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Linfield (draw refunded)
18%
Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Kilmarnock away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield attack 0.75 + Kilmarnock defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Kilmarnock attack 2.40 + Linfield defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Linfield scores more
14%
level
21%
Kilmarnock scores more
65%

Kilmarnock at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linfield vs Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock beat Linfield 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at Queen's University Malone Playing Fields in Belfast.