Linense 1–1 Sabadell: Result & Stats

Linense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sabadell

A. Coulibaly 34'

Aarón Rey 9'

1/30/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linense39%

×Draw28%

Sabadell33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LinenseExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.09

Linense

1.22

Sabadell

1.09

Linense creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

1.37

creates per match

1.23

0.95

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Linense

1.37

Sabadell

1.23

allows per match

Linense

0.95

Sabadell

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linense+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linense ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Linense or draw

67%

Linense or Sabadell

72%

Draw or Sabadell

61%

Winning margin

Linense wins by 2+

17%

Sabadell wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Linense 1+ goals

70%

Linense 2+ goals

34%

Linense 3+ goals

12%

Sabadell 1+ goals

66%

Sabadell 2+ goals

30%

Sabadell 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Linense (draw refunded)

54%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linense at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Sabadell away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linense attack 1.37 + Sabadell defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sabadell attack 1.23 + Linense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Linense scores more

39%

level

28%

Sabadell scores more

33%

Linense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Linense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

12'

34'

37'

41'

45'

51'

60'

G. Chironi← A. Coulibaly

60'

Gerard Oliva← Iván Martín

65'

S. Leuko

68'

Leandro Martínez← Santi Samanes

74'

Jacobo González← Aarón Rey

74'

Néstor Querol← Dani Sánchez

83'

Manu Toledano← Antoñito

83'

David Astals← Joseba Muguruza

83'

Sergi Altimira← F. García

Linense

Sabadell

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Romerito

60'▲G. Chironi←▼A. Coulibaly

60'▲Gerard Oliva←▼Iván Martín

68'▲Leandro Martínez←▼Santi Samanes

83'▲Manu Toledano←▼Antoñito

Linense substitutes

ChironiOlivaMartínezToledanoVaróRuaneChamKaniaMasllorens

Manager: Munitis

74'▲Jacobo González←▼Aarón Rey

74'▲Néstor Querol←▼Dani Sánchez

83'▲David Astals←▼Joseba Muguruza

83'▲Sergi Altimira←▼F. García

Sabadell substitutes

GonzálezQuerolAstalsAltimiraPlanasLealIndiasRoyoEzzarfaniFolchQuinteroBoniquet