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Linense vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Linense
Linense
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
2/4/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Linense44%
×Draw26%
Linares Deportivo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linense
1.42
Linares Deportivo
1.11

Linense creates 28% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Linense
1.11
Linares Deportivo
1.17

allows per match

Linense
1.05
Linares Deportivo
1.72

finishing

Linense+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linense ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Linense or draw
71%
Linense or Linares Deportivo
74%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
56%

Winning margin

Linense wins by 2+
21%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Linense 1+ goals
76%
Linense 2+ goals
41%
Linense 3+ goals
17%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
67%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
30%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Linense (draw refunded)
60%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linense at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linense attack 1.11 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.42

Linares Deportivo attack 1.17 + Linense defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Linense scores more
44%
level
26%
Linares Deportivo scores more
29%

Linense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Linense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Linense 2–3 Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat Linense 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción in La Línea de la Concepción.