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Linense vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Linense
Linense
FT
5 – 2
HT: 4 – 0
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
5/13/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 36Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linense49%
×Draw25%
Linares Deportivo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linense
1.60
Linares Deportivo
1.09

Linense creates 47% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Linense
1.37
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

Linense
0.95
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

Linense+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linense ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Linense or draw
74%
Linense or Linares Deportivo
75%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
51%

Winning margin

Linense wins by 2+
26%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Linense 1+ goals
80%
Linense 2+ goals
47%
Linense 3+ goals
22%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
66%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
30%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Linense (draw refunded)
65%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linense at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linense attack 1.37 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Linense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Linense scores more
49%
level
25%
Linares Deportivo scores more
26%

Linense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Linense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Linense 5 – 2 Linares Deportivo

Linense beat Linares Deportivo 5-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción in La Línea de la Concepción.