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Linense vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Linense
Linense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
10/2/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linense36%
×Draw28%
Celta de Vigo II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linense
1.20
Celta de Vigo II
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 120 away

creates per match

Linense
1.11
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

allows per match

Linense
1.05
Celta de Vigo II
1.29

finishing

Linense+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linense ↓

Celta de Vigo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Linense or draw
64%
Linense or Celta de Vigo II
72%
Draw or Celta de Vigo II
64%

Winning margin

Linense wins by 2+
15%
Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Linense 1+ goals
70%
Linense 2+ goals
34%
Linense 3+ goals
12%
Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
70%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
33%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Linense (draw refunded)
50%
Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linense at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linense attack 1.11 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Linense defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Linense scores more
36%
level
28%
Celta de Vigo II scores more
36%

Linense at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Linense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Linense 1–1 Celta de Vigo II

Linense and Celta de Vigo II drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción in La Línea de la Concepción.