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Celta de Vigo II vs Linense — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Linense
Linense
4/1/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Celta de Vigo II45%
×Draw30%
Linense25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta de Vigo II
1.21
Linense
0.83

Celta de Vigo II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 19 away

creates per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.68
Linense
0.53

allows per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.12
Linense
0.74

finishing

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par
Linense+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo II ↓

Linense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo II or draw
75%
Celta de Vigo II or Linense
70%
Draw or Linense
55%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
20%
Linense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
70%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
34%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
12%
Linense 1+ goals
56%
Linense 2+ goals
20%
Linense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
64%
Linense (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.12 · 121 matches

Linense away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.68 + Linense defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.21

Linense attack 0.53 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Celta de Vigo II scores more
45%
level
30%
Linense scores more
25%

Celta de Vigo II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Celta de Vigo II 1–0 Linense

Celta de Vigo II beat Linense 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro in Vigo.