Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Linense vs Algeciras — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Linense
Linense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Algeciras
Algeciras
4/23/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linense42%
×Draw28%
Algeciras30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linense
1.27
Algeciras
1.02

Linense creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Linense
1.11
Algeciras
1.00

allows per match

Linense
1.05
Algeciras
1.42

finishing

Linense+0.00on par
Algeciras+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linense ↓

Algeciras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Linense or draw
70%
Linense or Algeciras
72%
Draw or Algeciras
58%

Winning margin

Linense wins by 2+
19%
Algeciras wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Linense 1+ goals
72%
Linense 2+ goals
36%
Linense 3+ goals
14%
Algeciras 1+ goals
64%
Algeciras 2+ goals
27%
Algeciras 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Linense (draw refunded)
59%
Algeciras (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linense at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Algeciras away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linense attack 1.11 + Algeciras defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Algeciras attack 1.00 + Linense defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Linense scores more
42%
level
28%
Algeciras scores more
30%

Linense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Linense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linense vs Algeciras

Algeciras beat Linense 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción in La Línea de la Concepción.