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Algeciras vs Linense — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Algeciras
Algeciras
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Linense
Linense
3/6/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Estadio Nuevo Mirador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Algeciras53%
×Draw29%
Linense19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeciras
1.31
Linense
0.65

Algeciras creates 102% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 19 away

creates per match

Algeciras
1.25
Linense
0.47

allows per match

Algeciras
0.82
Linense
1.37

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par
Linense+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

Linense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw
81%
Algeciras or Linense
71%
Draw or Linense
47%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+
25%
Linense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals
73%
Algeciras 2+ goals
38%
Algeciras 3+ goals
14%
Linense 1+ goals
48%
Linense 2+ goals
14%
Linense 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)
74%
Linense (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.82 · 76 matches

Linense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 1.25 + Linense defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Linense attack 0.47 + Algeciras defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Algeciras scores more
53%
level
29%
Linense scores more
19%

Algeciras at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Algeciras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Algeciras vs Linense

Algeciras beat Linense 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirador in Algeciras.