Linense 4–1 Albacete: Result & Stats

Linense

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Albacete

Alhassan Koroma 86'

Josué Dorrio 79'

Fran Morante 61', 26'

Fran Álvarez 21'

11/13/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linense44%

×Draw28%

Albacete28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LinenseExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.97

Linense

1.31

Albacete

0.97

Linense creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

1.00

0.95

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Linense

1.37

Albacete

1.00

allows per match

Linense

0.95

Albacete

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linense+0.00on par

Albacete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linense ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Linense or draw

72%

Linense or Albacete

72%

Draw or Albacete

56%

Winning margin

Linense wins by 2+

20%

Albacete wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Linense 1+ goals

73%

Linense 2+ goals

38%

Linense 3+ goals

14%

Albacete 1+ goals

62%

Albacete 2+ goals

25%

Albacete 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Linense (draw refunded)

62%

Albacete (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linense at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linense attack 1.37 + Albacete defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Albacete attack 1.00 + Linense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Linense scores more

44%

level

28%

Albacete scores more

28%

Linense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Linense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

21'

26'

36'

61'

66'

Jordi Sánchez← J. Martínez

66'

Manu Fuster← David Del Pozo

67'

J. Masllorens

72'

J. Masllorens

72'

J. Masllorens

76'

A. Bandaogo← Leandro Martínez

76'

E. Gómez← Sergi García

78'

D. Johannesson

79'

Josué Dorrio

81'

Marc Llinares← Julio Alonso

81'

Nando García← D. Johannesson

84'

G. Oliva

85'

Alhassan Koroma← Antoñito

86'

Alhassan Koroma

89'

Borja López← A. Coulibaly

89'

Fito← Gerard Oliva

Linense

Albacete

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Romerito

76'▲A. Bandaogo←▼Leandro Martínez

85'▲Alhassan Koroma←▼Antoñito

89'▲Borja López←▼A. Coulibaly

89'▲Fito←▼Gerard Oliva

Linense substitutes

BandaogoKoromaLópezFitoLavelaJaúreguiSaygbeChamKaniaArroyo

Manager: Rubén De La Barrera

66'▲Jordi Sánchez←▼J. Martínez

66'▲Manu Fuster←▼David Del Pozo

76'▲E. Gómez←▼Sergi García

81'▲Marc Llinares←▼Julio Alonso

81'▲Nando García←▼D. Johannesson

Albacete substitutes

SánchezFusterGómezLlinaresGarcíaArasaBarragánBoyomoDjetei

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Linense 4–1 Albacete

Linense beat Albacete 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 13, 2021.

Goals: Fran Álvarez (21'), Fran Morante (26', 61'), Josué Dorrio (79'), Alhassan Koroma (86').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción in La Línea de la Concepción.

Linense vs Albacete — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Linense 4–1 Albacete