Albacete 3–0 Linense: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Linense

Kike Márquez 73', 69'

Dani González 56'

4/24/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Albacete64%

×Draw25%

Linense12%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchLinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.50

Albacete

1.56

Linense

0.50

Albacete creates 212% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.74

creates per match

0.47

0.53

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Albacete

1.74

Linense

0.47

allows per match

Albacete

0.53

Linense

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par

Linense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Linense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

88%

Albacete or Linense

75%

Draw or Linense

36%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

35%

Linense wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

79%

Albacete 2+ goals

46%

Albacete 3+ goals

21%

Linense 1+ goals

39%

Linense 2+ goals

9%

Linense 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

85%

Linense (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Linense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.74 + Linense defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.56

Linense attack 0.47 + Albacete defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Albacete scores more

64%

level

25%

Linense scores more

12%

Albacete at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

35'

39'

45'

45'

46'

Sergi Fernández← A. Koroma

48'

J. Munoz

54'

Dani González← Riki Rodríguez

56'

Dani González

69'

Kike Márquez

73'

Kike Márquez

74'

Gerard Oliva← Iván Martín

74'

S. Leuko← Antoñito

74'

Santi Samanes← Josué Dorrio

77'

Èric Montes← Rubén Martínez

77'

Jordi Sánchez← Kike Márquez

81'

E. Gómez← Manu Fuster

81'

Marc Llinares← Julio Alonso

86'

Borja López← Jesús Muñoz

Albacete

Linense

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Márquez

Attipoe

Manager: Rubén De La Barrera

54'▲Dani González←▼Riki Rodríguez

77'▲Èric Montes←▼Rubén Martínez

77'▲Jordi Sánchez←▼Kike Márquez

81'▲E. Gómez←▼Manu Fuster

81'▲Marc Llinares←▼Julio Alonso

Albacete substitutes

GonzálezMontesSánchezGómezLlinaresRosićBoyomoMartínezGarcíaMedina

Manager: Monteagudo

46'▲Sergi Fernández←▼A. Koroma

74'▲Gerard Oliva←▼Iván Martín

74'▲S. Leuko←▼Antoñito

74'▲Santi Samanes←▼Josué Dorrio

86'▲Borja López←▼Jesús Muñoz

Linense substitutes

FernándezOlivaLeukoSamanesLópezRuaneMartínezKaniaToledanoMasllorens

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Albacete 3–0 Linense

Albacete beat Linense 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 24, 2022.

Goals: Dani González (56'), Kike Márquez (69', 73').

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.

Albacete vs Linense — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Albacete 3–0 Linense