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Linense vs AD Ceuta FC — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Linense
Linense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
12/4/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linense40%
×Draw28%
AD Ceuta FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linense
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.08

Linense creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Linense
1.11
AD Ceuta FC
1.11

allows per match

Linense
1.05
AD Ceuta FC
1.37

finishing

Linense+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linense ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Linense or draw
68%
Linense or AD Ceuta FC
72%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
60%

Winning margin

Linense wins by 2+
17%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Linense 1+ goals
71%
Linense 2+ goals
35%
Linense 3+ goals
13%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
66%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
29%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Linense (draw refunded)
55%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linense at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linense attack 1.11 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.11 + Linense defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Linense scores more
40%
level
28%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
32%

Linense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Linense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linense vs AD Ceuta FC

Linense beat AD Ceuta FC 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción in La Línea de la Concepción.