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AD Ceuta FC vs Linense — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Linense
Linense
5/27/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

AD Ceuta FC42%
×Draw29%
Linense29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Linense
0.95

AD Ceuta FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC
1.68
Linense
0.53

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC
1.37
Linense
0.74

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par
Linense+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Linense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw
71%
AD Ceuta FC or Linense
71%
Draw or Linense
58%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
18%
Linense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
70%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
34%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
12%
Linense 1+ goals
61%
Linense 2+ goals
25%
Linense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
59%
Linense (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Linense away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.68 + Linense defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.21

Linense attack 0.53 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more
42%
level
29%
Linense scores more
29%

AD Ceuta FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: AD Ceuta FC 0–0 Linense

AD Ceuta FC and Linense drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.