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Lincoln vs Port Vale — League One 2025

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
R. Hackett-Fairchild 33'
11/29/2025League OneLeague One · Round 18LNER stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Lincoln64%
×Draw22%
Port Vale15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.90
Port Vale
0.78

Lincoln creates 144% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 46 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.19
Port Vale
0.72

allows per match

Lincoln
0.85
Port Vale
1.61

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
85%
Lincoln or Port Vale
78%
Draw or Port Vale
36%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
38%
Port Vale wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
85%
Lincoln 2+ goals
56%
Lincoln 3+ goals
29%
Port Vale 1+ goals
54%
Port Vale 2+ goals
18%
Port Vale 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
81%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.19 + Port Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.90

Port Vale attack 0.72 + Lincoln defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lincoln scores more
64%
level
22%
Port Vale scores more
15%

Lincoln at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
R. Hackett-FairchildLincolnLincoln · M
7.9

Match Events

33'
R. Hackett-Fairchild↳ A. Reach
61'
M. Faal← J. Stockley
66'
T. Bayliss← J. Moylan
66'
R. Street← J. Obikwu
77'
Reeco Hackett-Fairchild
80'
R. Towler← R. Hackett-Fairchild
80'
J. Collins← F. Draper
84'
Funso Ojo
89'
Kyle John
90+5'
Ben House
90'
Robert Street
90+2'
D. Brown← D. Cole
90+2'
R. Paton← R. Curtis

Possession

52%Lincoln

Shots

8Lincoln

Pass accuracy

50%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnPort
Overview
52%Possession48%
8Total Shots5
0.96Expected Goals (xG)0.68
3Corners5
14Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots5
3On Target1
3Off Target2
2Blocked2
6Inside Box5
2Outside Box0
Passing
52%Possession48%
383Total Passes343
244Accurate Passes221
64%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Port Vale

Lincoln beat Port Vale 1-0 in League One on November 29, 2025.

Goals: R. Hackett-Fairchild (33').

Lincoln controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 5.

The match was played at LNER stadium in Lincoln.