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Lincoln vs Port Vale — League One 2025

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Port Vale
Port Vale
A. Jackson 87'
B. House 42'
L. Sørensen 11'
D. Butterworth 33'
M. Taylor 30' (pen)
4/15/2023League OneLeague One · Round 42LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Lincoln64%
×Draw22%
Port Vale15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.90
Port Vale
0.78

Lincoln creates 144% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 46 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.19
Port Vale
0.72

allows per match

Lincoln
0.85
Port Vale
1.61

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
85%
Lincoln or Port Vale
78%
Draw or Port Vale
36%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
38%
Port Vale wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
85%
Lincoln 2+ goals
56%
Lincoln 3+ goals
29%
Port Vale 1+ goals
54%
Port Vale 2+ goals
18%
Port Vale 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
81%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.19 + Port Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.90

Port Vale attack 0.72 + Lincoln defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lincoln scores more
64%
level
22%
Port Vale scores more
15%

Lincoln at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
A. JacksonLincolnLincoln · D
8.0

Match Events

4'
Matthew Virtue-Thick
11'
L. Sørensen↳ D. Mândroiu
27'
Carl Rushworth
29'
J. Wright← M. Virtue-Thick
30'
M. TaylorPenalty
33'
D. Butterworth↳ M. Taylor
34'
Tom Conlon
35'
Ben House
42'
B. House↳ D. Mândroiu
45+1'
Malvind Benning
46'
R. Holden← D. Worrall
46'
S. Robinson← M. Benning
46'
E. Harrison← J. Wilson
47'
Sam Robinson
55'
Daniel Mandroiu
64'
Matty Taylor
67'
Paudie O’Connor
67'
Tom Pett
69'
Daniel Butterworth
70'
G. Massey← M. Taylor
73'
J. Plant← D. Butterworth
78'
D. Duffy← O. Shodipo
80'
Sam Robinson
80'
Sam Robinson
87'
A. Jackson↳ D. Duffy
90'
Harry Boyes
90+2'
L. Plange← B. House
90+2'
M. Sanders← D. Mândroiu

Possession

44%Lincoln

Shots

10Lincoln

Pass accuracy

47%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnPort
Overview
44%Possession56%
10Total Shots12
4Corners3
9Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots12
4On Target4
4Off Target4
2Blocked4
6Inside Box8
4Outside Box4
Passing
44%Possession56%
306Total Passes403
202Accurate Passes299
66%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls13
5Yellow Cards6
1Red Cards2
1Offsides2

League One: Lincoln 3–2 Port Vale

Lincoln beat Port Vale 3-2 in League One on April 15, 2023.

Goals: L. Sørensen (11'), M. Taylor (30' pen), D. Butterworth (33'), B. House (42'), A. Jackson (87').

Port Vale controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.