Lincoln 1–1 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Lincoln

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mansfield Town

G. McCallum 76'

M. Green 86'

10/18/2011

League #43 · Round 17Sincil Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lincoln27%

×Draw30%

Mansfield Town43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.19

Lincoln

0.88

Mansfield Town

1.19

Mansfield Town creates 35% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.25

1.14

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Lincoln

1.00

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Lincoln

1.14

Mansfield Town

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

57%

Lincoln or Mansfield Town

70%

Draw or Mansfield Town

73%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

9%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

59%

Lincoln 2+ goals

22%

Lincoln 3+ goals

6%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

70%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

33%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

39%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.00 + Mansfield Town defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Lincoln defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lincoln scores more

27%

level

30%

Mansfield Town scores more

43%

Mansfield Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

J. Christophe← A. Fuseini

76'

G. McCallum

78'

L. Briscoe← R. Dyer

83'

K. Perry← S. Smith

85'

J. Thomas← K. Cunningham

86'

M. Green

90+2'

A. Todd← L. Meikle

Lincoln

Mansfield

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

53'▲J. Christophe←▼A. Fuseini

83'▲K. Perry←▼S. Smith

85'▲J. Thomas←▼K. Cunningham

Lincoln substitutes

ChristophePerryThomasDraperHone

78'▲L. Briscoe←▼R. Dyer

90+2'▲A. Todd←▼L. Meikle

Mansfield Town substitutes

BriscoeToddRedmondDayWorthington