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Lincoln vs Hull City — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hull City
Hull City
L. Montsma 65'
M. Wilks 83' (pen)
J. Magennis 4'
4/24/2021League OneLeague One · Round 44LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Lincoln31%
×Draw25%
Hull City44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.27
Hull City
1.54

Hull City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 23 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.49
Hull City
2.09

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Hull City
1.04

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
56%
Lincoln or Hull City
75%
Draw or Hull City
69%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
13%
Hull City wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
72%
Lincoln 2+ goals
36%
Lincoln 3+ goals
14%
Hull City 1+ goals
79%
Hull City 2+ goals
45%
Hull City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
42%
Hull City (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Hull City away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Hull City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hull City attack 2.09 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lincoln scores more
31%
level
25%
Hull City scores more
44%

Hull City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. WilksHull CityHull City · M
7.7

Match Events

4'
J. Magennis↳ L. Coyle
17'
George Honeyman
30'
Jorge Grant
35'
Conor McGrandles
46'
R. Burke← G. Honeyman
57'
Mallik Wilks
62'
C. Bramall← J. Grant
65'
G. Whyte← K. Lewis-Potter
65'
L. Montsma↳ A. Scully
68'
D. Crowley← R. Slater
73'
L. Bridcutt← C. McGrandles
73'
J. Jones← A. Edun
74'
T. Eaves← J. Magennis
78'
T. Hopper← A. Scully
83'
M. WilksPenalty
88'
Tom Eaves

Possession

62%Lincoln

Shots

7Lincoln

Pass accuracy

51%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnHull
Overview
62%Possession38%
7Total Shots18
6Corners3
13Fouls13
Shots
7Total Shots18
3On Target6
1Off Target7
3Blocked5
5Inside Box13
2Outside Box5
Passing
62%Possession38%
458Total Passes274
348Accurate Passes201
76%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

League One: Lincoln 1–2 Hull City

Hull City beat Lincoln 2-1 in League One on April 24, 2021.

Goals: J. Magennis (4'), L. Montsma (65'), M. Wilks (83' pen).

Lincoln controlled possession (62%) and registered 7 shots to 18.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.