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Hull City vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
2/9/2021League OneLeague One · Round 21KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hull City45%
×Draw28%
Lincoln27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.30
Lincoln
0.94

Hull City creates 38% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 156 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.39
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Hull City
0.61
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
73%
Hull City or Lincoln
72%
Draw or Lincoln
55%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
21%
Lincoln wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
73%
Hull City 2+ goals
37%
Hull City 3+ goals
14%
Lincoln 1+ goals
61%
Lincoln 2+ goals
24%
Lincoln 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
62%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Hull City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hull City scores more
45%
level
28%
Lincoln scores more
27%

Hull City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
A. JacksonLincolnLincoln · D
7.9

Match Events

23'
Conor McGrandles
23'
J. Jones← L. Bridcutt
43'
Lewie Coyle
50'
Morgan Rogers
62'
C. Bramall← A. Edun
63'
R. Poole← T. Eyoma
68'
M. Wilks← L. Coyle
83'
R. Slater← D. Crowley
89'
Jorge Grant
90'
Greg Docherty

Possession

52%Hull

Shots

15Hull

Pass accuracy

51%Hull

Statistics

HullLincoln
Overview
52%Possession48%
15Total Shots8
5Corners4
15Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots8
0On Target1
9Off Target5
6Blocked2
8Inside Box5
7Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
534Total Passes496
466Accurate Passes415
87%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
15Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Hull City vs Lincoln

Hull City and Lincoln drew 0-0 in League One on February 9, 2021.

Hull City controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.