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Lincoln vs Gillingham — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gillingham
Gillingham
2/22/2020League OneLeague One · Round 35Sincil Bank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Lincoln45%
×Draw26%
Gillingham28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.44
Gillingham
1.08

Lincoln creates 33% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 99 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.49
Gillingham
1.17

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Gillingham
1.38

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
72%
Lincoln or Gillingham
74%
Draw or Gillingham
55%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
22%
Gillingham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
76%
Lincoln 2+ goals
42%
Lincoln 3+ goals
18%
Gillingham 1+ goals
66%
Gillingham 2+ goals
29%
Gillingham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
62%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lincoln scores more
45%
level
26%
Gillingham scores more
28%

Lincoln at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
C. OgilvieGillinghamGillingham · D
8.3

Match Events

13'
Jake Hesketh
57'
H. Anderson← J. Hesketh
58'
Adetayo Edun
64'
J. Akinde← J. Roberts
68'
Barry Fuller
69'
Liam Bridcutt
81'
J. Graham← S. OKeefe
84'
R. Charles-Cook← O. Lee
90'
Michael Bostwick
90'
Adetayo Edun
90'
Adetayo Edun
90'
Brandon Hanlan

Possession

59%Lincoln

Shots

8Lincoln

Pass accuracy

56%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnGillingham
Overview
59%Possession41%
8Total Shots11
4Corners7
14Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots11
3On Target2
4Off Target6
1Blocked3
8Inside Box7
0Outside Box4
Passing
59%Possession41%
412Total Passes268
273Accurate Passes139
66%Pass Accuracy52%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls11
5Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Gillingham

Lincoln and Gillingham drew 0-0 in League One on February 22, 2020.

Lincoln controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Sincil Bank in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.