Gillingham 1–1 Lincoln: Result & Stats | League One

Gillingham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lincoln

D. Lloyd-McGoldrick 44'

A. Edun 4'

8/7/2021

League One · Round 1Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Gillingham33%

×Draw26%

Lincoln41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.37

Gillingham

1.21

Lincoln

1.37

Lincoln creates 13% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 156 away

1.19

creates per match

1.26

1.48

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Lincoln

1.26

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Lincoln

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

59%

Gillingham or Lincoln

74%

Draw or Lincoln

67%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

14%

Lincoln wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

70%

Gillingham 2+ goals

34%

Gillingham 3+ goals

12%

Lincoln 1+ goals

75%

Lincoln 2+ goals

40%

Lincoln 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

45%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gillingham scores more

33%

level

26%

Lincoln scores more

41%

Lincoln at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

V. Oliver

Gillingham · F

7.6

Match Events

4'

6'

17'

44'

63'

65'

H. Adelakun← C. Bramall

68'

David Tutonda

69'

M. Carayol← D. Lloyd-McGoldrick

70'

B. Reeves← O. Lee

80'

E. Bishop← L. Sørensen

82'

G. Sithole← S. OKeefe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamLincoln

Overview

44%Possession56%

17Total Shots10

5Corners4

12Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots10

6On Target4

6Off Target3

5Blocked3

11Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

317Total Passes414

211Accurate Passes289

67%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1