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Lincoln vs Crewe — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
B. Johnson 80'
C. McGrandles 52'
M. Rogers 21'
3/6/2021League OneLeague One · Round 34LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Lincoln53%
×Draw25%
Crewe22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.61
Crewe
0.93

Lincoln creates 73% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 50 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.49
Crewe
0.86

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Crewe
1.74

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
78%
Lincoln or Crewe
75%
Draw or Crewe
47%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
28%
Crewe wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
80%
Lincoln 2+ goals
48%
Lincoln 3+ goals
22%
Crewe 1+ goals
61%
Crewe 2+ goals
24%
Crewe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
71%
Crewe (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Crewe away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.74 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Crewe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.61

Crewe attack 0.86 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lincoln scores more
53%
level
25%
Crewe scores more
22%

Lincoln at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
B. JohnsonLincolnLincoln · F
8.5

Match Events

21'
M. Rogers↳ B. Johnson
52'
C. McGrandles↳ J. Jones
57'
D. Powell← S. Walker
57'
M. Mandron← C. Porter
67'
Adam Jackson
69'
T. Hopper← C. Morton
72'
A. Evans← R. Wintle
72'
O. Dale← C. Kirk
79'
James Jones
80'
B. Johnson↳ T. Hopper
86'
A. Scully← B. Johnson
86'
T. Archibald← M. Rogers

Possession

39%Lincoln

Shots

10Lincoln

Pass accuracy

49%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnCrewe
Overview
39%Possession61%
10Total Shots9
1Corners5
15Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots9
7On Target1
3Off Target6
0Blocked2
8Inside Box7
2Outside Box2
Passing
39%Possession61%
382Total Passes593
305Accurate Passes497
80%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls8
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

League One: Lincoln 3–0 Crewe

Lincoln beat Crewe 3-0 in League One on March 6, 2021.

Goals: M. Rogers (21'), C. McGrandles (52'), B. Johnson (80').

Crewe controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.