Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Crewe vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
M. Mandron 52' (pen), 48' (pen)
12/7/2021League OneLeague One · Round 21Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Crewe33%
×Draw26%
Lincoln41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.24
Lincoln
1.42

Lincoln creates 15% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 156 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.26
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Crewe
1.58
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
59%
Crewe or Lincoln
74%
Draw or Lincoln
67%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
14%
Lincoln wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
71%
Crewe 2+ goals
35%
Crewe 3+ goals
13%
Lincoln 1+ goals
76%
Lincoln 2+ goals
41%
Lincoln 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
44%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.26 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.24

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Crewe defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crewe scores more
33%
level
26%
Lincoln scores more
41%

Lincoln at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
M. MandronCreweCrewe · F
8.5

Match Events

18'
T. Eyoma← A. Jackson
37'
Timothy Eyoma
45+5'
Regan Griffiths
45+3'
Jamie Robson
46'
L. Sørensen← L. Bridcutt
46'
L. Fiorini← J. Robson
48'
M. MandronPenalty
50'
Timothy Eyoma
52'
M. MandronPenalty
61'
D. N'Lundulu← H. Adelakun
70'
T. Johnson← C. Ainley
70'
L. Murphy← R. Griffiths
85'
S. Robertson← O. Finney

Possession

53%Crewe

Shots

16Crewe

Pass accuracy

51%Crewe

Statistics

CreweLincoln
Overview
53%Possession47%
16Total Shots11
1Corners6
11Fouls17
Shots
16Total Shots11
6On Target2
8Off Target5
2Blocked4
10Inside Box7
6Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
473Total Passes407
353Accurate Passes289
75%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls17
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
0Offsides4

Crewe 2 – 0 Lincoln

Crewe beat Lincoln 2-0 in League One on December 7, 2021.

Goals: M. Mandron (48' pen, 52' pen).

Crewe controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.