Lincoln 3–0 Cheltenham: Result & Stats | League One

Lincoln

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Cheltenham

M. Whittaker 19', 4'

A. Scully 17'

4/18/2022

League One · Round 44LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Lincoln51%

×Draw25%

Cheltenham24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.00

Lincoln

1.58

Cheltenham

1.00

Lincoln creates 58% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 69 away

1.49

creates per match

1.01

0.99

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Lincoln

1.49

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Lincoln

0.99

Cheltenham

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

76%

Lincoln or Cheltenham

75%

Draw or Cheltenham

49%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

26%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

79%

Lincoln 2+ goals

47%

Lincoln 3+ goals

21%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

63%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

26%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

68%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lincoln scores more

51%

level

25%

Cheltenham scores more

24%

Lincoln at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Whittaker

Lincoln · F

9.2

Match Events

4'

M. Whittaker↳ L. Fiorini

8'

Aaron Ramsey

17'

A. Scully

19'

M. Whittaker↳ E. Bishop

46'

L. Freestone← A. Ramsey

57'

Lewis Freestone

65'

E. Bonds← E. Chapman

73'

T. Hopper← L. Cullen

76'

L. Sercombe← C. Colkett

79'

M. Sanders← M. Whittaker

81'

Alfie May

83'

L. Sørensen← L. Fiorini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnCheltenham

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots11

6Corners2

7Fouls22

Shots

15Total Shots11

8On Target4

4Off Target4

3Blocked3

10Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

518Total Passes501

424Accurate Passes407

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls22

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1