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Cheltenham vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lincoln
Lincoln
L. Sercombe 15' (pen)
F. Draper 52'
J. Taylor 40'
4/20/2024League OneLeague One · Round 45Completely-Suzuki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham35%
×Draw27%
Lincoln38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.21
Lincoln
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 156 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.19
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.32
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
62%
Cheltenham or Lincoln
73%
Draw or Lincoln
65%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
15%
Lincoln wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
70%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
34%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
12%
Lincoln 1+ goals
72%
Lincoln 2+ goals
37%
Lincoln 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
47%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cheltenham scores more
35%
level
27%
Lincoln scores more
38%

Lincoln at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
A. JacksonLincolnLincoln · D
7.9

Match Events

15'
L. SercombePenalty
40'
J. Taylor
52'
F. Draper
53'
Elliot Bonds
57'
J. Nuttall← E. Bonds
57'
J. Shepherd← B. Williams
67'
J. Olayinka← J. Thomas
71'
J. Harrop← T. Bradbury
75'
Curtis Davies
81'
J. Makama← J. Taylor
86'
Josh Harrop
86'
J. Moylan← F. Draper
87'
Sean Long
90+2'
J. Burroughs← D. Mândroiu
90+2'
T. Eyoma← L. Sørensen

Possession

53%Cheltenham

Shots

10Cheltenham

Pass accuracy

52%Cheltenham

Statistics

CheltenhamLincoln
Overview
53%Possession47%
10Total Shots19
3Corners9
13Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots19
4On Target7
3Off Target6
3Blocked6
3Inside Box15
7Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
347Total Passes301
210Accurate Passes169
61%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls14
4Yellow Cards0
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Lincoln

Lincoln beat Cheltenham 2-1 in League One on April 20, 2024.

Goals: L. Sercombe (15' pen), J. Taylor (40'), F. Draper (52').

Cheltenham controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 19.

The match was played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.